While company planners regularly resort to forecasting to estimate results at some future point in time, the author considers forecasting has serious limitations and is not a trusted guide for the long term future. Instead, he urges scenario planning as a first-class manner of envisaging the future, as a way to help supervisors make better tactical choices and see the business environment more clearly. Using the substantial expertise of Shell in this region, he sets out a simple seven-step scenario planning process, which supervisors can use in a single day or two half-day workshops.
Doing this challenge executive assumptions will definitely bring organizational learning, broaden direction views and assist every person to see the business atmosphere in which they run as a complicated, nonlinear system. "In the current world of doubt, it is inadequate simply to assess condition," she says, mentioning the new approach she call "joint futures."
PUBLICATION DATE: March 15, 2012 PRODUCT #: IIR070-PDF-ENG
This is just an excerpt. This case is about STRATEGY & EXECUTION
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