This note emphasize the idea that the manager will generally desire to ask specialists to express their views concerning significant business hazards using the precise terminology of likelihood. Examples are drawn from the 2008 financial catastrophe and include value-at-risk financial reporting.
The second half of this note explains how a manager might use a scoring rule to appraise the quality of pros' probability predictions. This note is meant to accompany an instructor's own real time forecasting exercise where pupils predict, at the beginning of a week, occasions and quantities that will be understood by the end of the week. The amounts and occasions may include stock prices, commodity prices, interest rates, exchange rates, bond ratings, votes that are political, film box office sales, Nielsen television ratings, weather events, athletic event presence, etc.
PUBLICATION DATE: July 02, 2009 PRODUCT #: UV3899-PDF-ENG
This is just an excerpt. This case is about STRATEGY & EXECUTION
Related Case Solutions & Analyses:
Flying J
Robert Wessman and Actavis Winning Formula
Microsoft in the Peoples Republic of China: 2005 Update
Grafica Inc.: Winning the New Jersey Lottery (B)
Financial Reporting and Control Framework
Analyst Conflicts (A): Resolved
Statistical Inference & Linear Regression
Danshui plant no. 2
TripIt: The Traveler’s Agent
Design Strategy at Samsung Electronics: Becoming a Top-Tier Company
