The drunkard's Walk-How randomness rules our lives Case Solution And Analysis, HBR Case Study Solution & Analysis of Harvard Case Studies

The drunkard's Walk-How randomness rules our lives Case Study Solution

Book Overview

Probability, randomness, and chance in our life have more role than we realize. Since, people’s success and failure is attributed to the actions rather than acknowledging the luck and its role into the life. A person driving in car to purchase the lottery ticket with expectation of winning millions relaying on the luck, not actions, but there is higher probability for him to be killed multiple times in a car accident while driving car to purchase the lottery.

Randomness and probability emphasize on understanding the role of luck in our life, to understand how our life is full of probability, and luck. A world champion in race loses in start of race, and could not cross a single hurdle. Is this attributable to the action for a race champion, not at all? But, it is about the luck, probability, and randomness of the winner that kept him behind.

Luck, and probability rulers our life that we need to understand and manage how to make appropriate decision based on the probability. Indeed, probability of the success cannot be calculated by just reviewing the person. Since, peoples judge success and failure from the character and talent of the individual, and this is not reality. Because, peoples do not judge those individuals on the basis of the efforts they have taken approach.

Probability and luck are attributable to the luck since luck and probability is based on the efforts made by the person. If, the person has not made much efforts than there is less probability that person would become successful in aim, and objective. The less probability is there, then less luck is there. Because, probability and luck can be used as synonyms to each other.

The book takes to journey of new world of probability that would take down, analyze, judge, understand, and think about the situations, real events, problems that occur. The probability of making a decision based on the intuitive feeling is more than the decision based on the real data, probability, chance, and luck. Intuitive and gut feelings works sometimes. But, it is not necessary that it should always work.

Applications and Implications

The complications have increased around us since we are around the probabilities, chances, and luck. Since, humans have misunderstood the how world works. Since, a one of worst political party have performed well in last elections cannot be attributed to the luck. Since, efforts that political party have made increased the probability of the winning more seats in the assembly.

So, the probability of the success is attributable to luck based on the judgment that when peoples are skilled, they are just lucky, and when they are unskilled, they are just unlucky. So, there are both positive and negative judgment of the peoples. A newly hired equity analyst in S & P have been producing high quality work, and his reports are widely accepted by the clients, and reports are also well received by the market.

The probability of his success is attributable to his skills, when he have success. But, what about the luck. Meanwhile, when market declines, a downside trend is experienced by the market, and clients lost millions of dollars which were invested based on the report prepared by the same person who were being complimented for his work by same clients. So, in this situation, he is felt unskilled and unlucky.

The market cannot work on the luck of one person. But, has that person managed to understand the probability of loss into the market? These attributes increase the numbers of luck in the probability. Because, the luck is itself second name of the probability, and chance. Just relaying on the luck, and leaving probability behind would not work in this situation.

The randomness is the major contributing factor into the success and failure, and randomness is out of control, since it cannot be controlled. But, the problem is that what is in our control are only the opportunities we avail, and how we utilize these opportunities, and how we boost up the skills and experience the probability of the success that how it increases and decreases.

The real matter to the life is how we shape our lives, and that lifestyle shapes our thoughts, and these thoughts are ideation of the environment that we have. But, these thoughts have not been derived from the real calculations, and these thoughts are not based on the real calculations of the probability, and chance, rather they are unintentionally formed.

The psychological illusions cause to misjudge the world. Because, the world have forgotten to judge the peoples. Rather peoples judge based on the thoughts, their character, talent, and their face. But, these characters are not more attributable to the success, and failure. The probability, chance, and luck are real factors emphasizing the success.................

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