This note highlights the idea that managers often want to ask experts to comment on important business risks, using the exact language of probability. Examples are taken from the 2008 financial crisis and include value-at-risk financial statements. The second half of this note explains how managers can use the scoring rules for evaluating the quality of the experts' forecasts of probability. This note is intended to accompany their own real-time forecasting exercise instructor, where students predicted at the beginning of the week, and the number of events that will be implemented before the end of the week. Values and events can include stock prices, commodity prices, interest rates, currency exchange rates, bond ratings, the political voice of the movie box office, Nielsen television ratings, weather events, sporting event attendance, and so on. "Hide
by Kenneth C. Lichtendahl 10 pages. Publication Date: July 2, 2009. Prod. #: UV3899-PDF-ENG
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