Cadim-China And India Real Estate Deals Harvard Case Solution & Analysis

The last investment opportunity with the Strong land was in the residential construction in Wuxi, China. The construction of residential involved 2 phases in which CADIMhad to invest 50% amount in the first phase and had the option if it would further invest in the second phase. The problem in the investment was that it would not be able to withdraw any profits until the project had ended and if it decides for not going through the second project with Strong land, then it would require in finding a new potential partner for providing investment opportunities.

 

Q.3: Hurdle Rate

The qualitative aspect of the investment portfolio suggests that company demands a certain rate of return on its investment for taking the available risk on its investment. There are two types of rate of returns which need to be taken into consideration for earning the minimum level of remuneration. Generally, the company’s net cash flows are discounted by using either Hurdle rate of IRR. The qualitative aspect of the hurdle rate suggests that if the Hurdle rate is below IRR, company’s NPV will be positive. However, if it is above IRR, then the NPV will be lower. Hence, there lies inverse relationship between IRR and Hurdle rate.

The minimum level of net remuneration or net return required by the company is 14% for its investments in real estate. The company is of the opinion to increase this return threshold by analyzing the risk appetite of all the investments. This varies from region to region such ascompany has forecasted a hurdle rate of around 18% for the novel investments in the US which is lower than the return on investments in China and India because they are riskier so, the threshold has been set to around 20% or more. But, this does not case all the time because it varies from time to time and on the basis of factors affecting the securities’ risk. There might be few projects in India and China which contains less risk appetite than investment in US securities.

Cadim-China And India Real Estate Deals Harvard Case Solution & Analysis

Q4:ATLANTIS Deal

Expected NPV and IRR of Atlantis Deal

NPV or IRR of Atlantis Deal
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
PV -139 2.4872307 24.9152 52.0155 93.039 78.3524 43.4826
Total inflows 294.29188
Outflows          (139)
NPV  $   155.20
IRR 20.31%

 

 

 

Optimistic NPV and IRR of Atlantis Deal

0 1 2 3 4 5 6
PV           (139) 27.803686 32.6488 60.5424 100.324 82.6125 35.6742
Total inflows 339.60539
Outflows          (139)
NPV  $   200.52
IRR 28.26%

 

Pessimistic NPV and IRR of Atlantis Deal

0 1 2 3 4 5 6
PV           (167) -76.17722 -1.4684 41.9241 139.367 148.253 135.747
Total inflows 387.64557
Outflows          (167)
NPV  $   220.76
IRR 15.60%

 

FOEREAU DEAL

 

Expected NPV and IRR of FOEREAU Deal

0 1 2 3 4
PV         (33) -15.19 28.2268 54.835 43.4092
Total inflows 111.281
Outflows         (33)
NPV  $ 78.04
IRR 41.87%

 

Optimistic NPV and IRR of FOEREAU Deal

0 1 2 3 4
PV         (33) -13.391 0.03167 59.5342 47.4863
Total inflows 93.6611
Outflows         (33)
NPV  $ 60.42
IRR 30.19%

 

 

 

Pessimistic NPV and IRR of FOEREAU Deal

0 1 2 3 4
PV         (37) -22.674 24.1554 50.939 43.9938
Total inflows 96.4145
Outflows         (37)
NPV  $ 59.86
IRR 29.00%

 

STRONGLAND Deal

 

Expected NPV and IRR of STRONGLAND Deal

0 1 2 3 4
PV    (36.90) 11.7325 31.4734 4.12483 0
Total inflows 47.3306
Outflows         (37)
NPV  $ 10.43
IRR 14.67%

 

Optimistic NPV and IRR of STRONGLAND Deal

0 1 2 3 4
PV    (36.90) 20.8455 35.9085 0 0
Total inflows 56.754
Outflows         (37)
NPV  $ 19.85
IRR 30.85%

 

Pessimistic NPV and IRR of STRONGLAND Deal

0 1 2 3 4
PV    (42.43) -23.002 29.539 4.12483 21.3807
Total inflows 32.0426
Outflows    (42.43)
NPV  $(10.39)
IRR -6.62%

 

Q5: Decision with Recommendations:

After analyzing the results of NPV and IRR for all three partners using expected, optimistic and pessimistic approach, it can be recommended that company should choose theinvestment with a partner which provides highest NPV along with theminimum required rate of return requirement of 14%. The NPV of Atlantic Deal shows thehighest result of $220.76 so this should be accepted.

Moreover, it has the internal rate of return which is up to the acceptable level of at least 14% so this will be having the less risk by using the pessimistic approach. However, the Optimistic approach is showing higher IRR requirement for its inflows to be equal to its outflows. So, I would recommend the CADIM to invest in Atlantic by using Pessimistic Approach for getting highest return in terms of NPV and minimum required alevel of remuneration.

Appendices:

STRONGLAND DEAL CASH FLOW FORECAST
(All figures in millions of Chinese yuan (CNR) unless otherwise indicated: CNR7.2 = US$1)
YEAR 0 1 2 3 4
Expected Scenario
Gross Revenues     36.60     57.60       6.11
Construction Costs    (36.90)    (23.22)    (16.69)           -           -
Net Revenues    (36.90)     13.38     40.90       6.11  
          -           -           -           -
Optimistic Scenario           -           -           -           -
Gross Revenues           -     46.99     63.36           -
Construction Costs    (36.90)    (23.22)    (16.69)           -
Net Revenues    (36.90)     23.76     46.67           -  
          -           -           -           -
Pessimistic Scenario           -           -           -           -
Gross Revenues           -       0.49     57.60       6.11     36.11
Construction Costs    (42.43)    (26.71)    (19.21)           -
Net Revenues    (42.43)    (26.22)     38.39       6.11     36.11

 

 

 

 

FOEREAU DEAL CASH FLOW FORECAST
(All figures in millions of Indian rupees (INR) unless otherwise indicated: INR39.5 = US$1)  
YEAR 0 1 2 3 4
Expected Scenario
Gross Revenues            693         3,538         5,498         4,506
Construction Costs      (1,313)       (1,377)       (2,089)       (2,288)       (1,610)
Net Revenues      (1,313)          (684)         1,449         3,209         2,896
Optimistic Scenario
Gross Revenues            774         3,715         5,773         4,778
Construction Costs      (1,313)       (1,377)       (2,089)       (2,288)       (1,610)
Net Revenues      (1,313)          (603)                2         3,484         3,168
Pessimistic Scenario
Gross Revenues            493         3,538         5,498         4,706
Construction Costs             (1)       (1,514)       (2,298)       (2,517)       (1,771)
Net Revenues      (1,444)       (1,021)         1,240         2,981         2,935

 

ATLANTIS DEAL CASH FLOW FORECASTS
All figures in US $
Expected Scenario              
YEAR 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Gross Revenues
Ahmedabad condo          17          12           -           -           -           -
Ahmedabad Hotel           -            8          10          11          12          13
Chennai Condo        111        123        135        148        163           -
Chennai rr Park            2            4            4            5            5          56
Hyderabad Hotel           -           -            9          11          12          59
Pune Township          18          90        139        114           -           -
Total        148        236        297        290        193        128
Construction Costs           -           -           -           -           -           -
Ahmedabad condo           (5)         (11)           (4)           -           -           -           -
Ahmedabad Hotel         (14)           (1)           (5)           (6)           (7)           (7)           (8)
Chennai Condo         (38)         (95)       (124)       (136)         (50)           -           -
Chennai IT Park         (35)           -           -           -           -           -           -
Hyderabad Hotel         (13)           (3)         (12)           (6)           (7)           (8)           (8)
Pune Township         (33)         (35)         (53)         (58)         (41)           -           -
Total       (139)       (144)       (198)       (207)       (105)         (15)         (16)
Taxes           -           (1)           (6)         (14)         (28)         (27)         (17)
Net Revenues       (139)            3          32          77        157        151          95
            -           -           -           -           -           -           -
Optimistic Scenario           -           -           -           -           -           -           -
YEAR 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Gross Revenues           -        182        248        312        304        202        108
Construction Costs       (139)       (144)       (198)       (207)       (105)         (15)         (16)
Taxes           -           (6)           (7)         (16)         (30)         (28)         (14)
Net Revenues       (139)          32          42          90        169        159          78
          -           -           -           -           -           -           -
Pessimistic scenario           -           -           -           -           -           -           -
YEAR 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Gross Revenues           -          97        236        297        290        193        179
Construction Costs       (167)       (173)       (237)       (248)       (126)         (18)         (19)
Taxes           -           -           -           (7)         (25)         (26)         (24)
Net Revenues       (167)         (76)           (1)          42        139        148        136

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